← Regionals @ Hobby Lords Dunedin!
Fire ExiaTier 2
at Regionals @ Hobby Lords Dunedin!
decks
3
(12.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
6-6-3
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.7%
avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
47.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1194
· median 1191
· range 1104–1285
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1132
Q3 1368
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 40.5% | -7.1 |
| Wind Cats | 12.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.7% | +3.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.3% | +23.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.9% | -14.5 |
| Wind Exia | 8.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.2% | +15.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.6% | +3.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
