← Regionals @ Hobby Lords Dunedin!
Wind ExiaTier 2
at Regionals @ Hobby Lords Dunedin!
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.1 |
| Fire Exia | 12.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.8% | -15.5 |
| Wind Cats | 12.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.9% | -20.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Water Allies | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.2 |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 1 card with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 1 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jin, Undying Resolve | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |