← Regionals @ Hobby Lords Dunedin!
Water AlliesTier 1
at Regionals @ Hobby Lords Dunedin!
decks
2
(8.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
6-1-1
overall winrate
81.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.0%
avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
57.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1537
· median 1537
· range 1491–1584
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1132
Q3 1368
1599
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.2% | +11.7 |
| Fire Exia | 12.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -23.0 |
| Wind Cats | 12.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.0% | +0.9 |
| Wind Exia | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
