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Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Regional Championships Box Hill
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 14.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Slimes | 13.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.4% | -16.0 |
| Wind Allies | 9.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 56.2% | +3.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.7% | +4.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.2% | -11.3 |
| Wind Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Water Allies | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lavasoul Tiger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |