← Regional Championships Box Hill
Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Regional Championships Box Hill
decks
3
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
9-5-2
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.6%
avg ELO +3.8 per match
expected value
52.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1344
· median 1330
· range 1278–1424
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1211
Q3 1398
1563
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 14.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.9% | +0.7 |
| Slimes | 13.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.4% | +6.1 |
| Wind Allies | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.8% | +11.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.7% | +6.8 |
| Wind Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
