← Regional Championships Box Hill
Fire Dawn of AshesTier 2
at Regional Championships Box Hill
decks
1
(1.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.4%
avg ELO +3.9 per match
expected value
49.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1094
· median 1094
· range 1094–1094
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1211
Q3 1398
1563
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 14.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.9 |
| Slimes | 13.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.2% | -5.6 |
| Wind Allies | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
