← Regional Championships Box Hill
Water AlliesTier 3
at Regional Championships Box Hill
decks
1
(1.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.9%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
42.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1384
· median 1384
· range 1384–1384
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1211
Q3 1398
1563
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 14.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 50.6% | +0.5 |
| Slimes | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Wind Allies | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
