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Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Regional Championships Box Hill
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.0% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 40.3% | -6.2 |
| Wind Allies | 9.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 36.4% | -8.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 36.7% | -6.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.5% | +1.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.1% | -0.7 |
| Wind Exia | 3.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 64.3% | +10.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.7% | -4.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.9 |
| Fire Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 49.4% | -0.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Song of Frost, Primordial Ritual, Mystic Purifier. Losers more often ran: Rippleback Terrapin, Tidal Lock, Frozen Dismissal.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Glacial Guidance | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Tirade | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Diffusive Block | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |