← Regional Championships Box Hill

SlimesTier 1

at Regional Championships Box Hill

decks
7 (13.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
31 15-11-5
overall winrate
56.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.6% avg ELO +2.7 per match
expected value
51.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.1% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1289 · median 1295 · range 1089–1455 (7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055 Q1 1211 Q3 1398 1563
14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 14% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Ravishing Mill 14.8% 4 2-1-1 62.5% 56.2% 59.7% +6.2
Wind Allies 9.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.1% -0.8
Wind Shadowstrike 9.3% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 42.8% -6.9
Fire Crux Mage 7.4% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 66.6% +16.0
Wind Astra Cleric 7.4% 6 3-2-1 58.3% 55.0% 55.4% +2.9
Fire Slimes 5.6% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 46.1% -2.9
Water Penguin Mill 5.6% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 43.6% -6.1
Wind Exia 3.7% 0
Wind Razorgale 3.7% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 55.9% +5.7
Fire Aggro 1.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.2% -10.8
Fire Arcane 1.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.4% +11.8
Fire Astra Cleric 1.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.1% +9.7
Fire Dawn of Ashes 1.9% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 55.8% +5.6
Fire Silvie 1.9% 0
Water Allies 1.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.0% +11.2
Water Astra Cleric 1.9% 0
Water Tera Mage 1.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.3% +13.2
Water Umbra Ranger 1.9% 0
Water Wind Vanitas 1.9% 0
Wind Ravishing Mill 1.9% 0
Wind Vanitas 1.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.6% -10.3
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Unbroken Mustang, Viridian Protective Trinket, Ethereal Slime. Losers more often ran: Slime's Blessing, Slimeshield, Resolute Stand.

Played more by winners
Unbroken Mustang
Winning decks ran 2.0 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Ethereal Slime
Winning decks ran 4.0 copies on average, losing decks 3.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Mystic Purifier
Winning decks ran 1.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Kind Beastcaller
Winning decks ran 1.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Red Slime
Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Played more by losers
Slime's Blessing
Losing decks ran 2.5 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Slimeshield
Losing decks ran 4.0 copies on average, winning decks 1.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 2.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Losing decks ran 3.0 copies on average, winning decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Gaia's Songbird
Losing decks ran 2.2 copies on average, winning decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Unbroken Mustang +1.00 4 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 4 0 0
Slime's Blessing -1.00 0 4 0
Ethereal Slime +0.75 3 0 1
Slimeshield -0.75 0 3 1
Mystic Purifier +0.75 3 0 0
Kind Beastcaller +0.75 3 0 0
Resolute Stand -0.50 1 3 0
Entrancing Filigree -0.50 0 2 0
Heavenly Guide +0.50 2 0 0
Lustrous Slime -0.50 0 2 2
Nullifying Lantern +0.50 2 0 2
Scavenging Raccoon +0.50 2 0 2
Engineered Slime +0.50 2 0 0
Green Slime +0.50 2 0 0
Dungeon Guide +0.25 1 0 3
Beastbond Boots +0.25 1 0 3
Stalwart Shieldmate -0.25 1 2 1
Gaia's Songbird -0.25 1 2 1
Turbo Charge +0.25 1 0 0
Tariff Ring -0.25 0 1 3
Escape the Wreckage -0.25 0 1 3
Nullifying Mirror +0.25 1 0 0
Beastbond Paws -0.25 0 1 0
Baby Blue Slime -0.25 0 1 0
Reprogram -0.25 0 1 0
Red Slime +0.25 2 1 0
Kraal, Stonescale Tyrant -0.25 0 1 0
Life Essence Amulet -0.25 0 1 0
Hymn of Gaia's Grace +0.25 1 0 0
Wisdom's Reprise -0.25 0 1 0
Bedivere, Woodland Overseer -0.25 0 1 0
Library Witch -0.25 0 1 0
Slime Eruption +0.00 1 1 2

JSON: /api/events/12979/archetypes/Slimes