← Weatherlight Grand Archive Store Championship - Mortal Ambition season!
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Weatherlight Grand Archive Store Championship - Mortal Ambition season!.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.9% | 9 | 88.9% | 67.6% | 62.6% | 59.7% | 1465 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Penguin Mill | 2 | 3.7% | 13 | 69.2% | 64.4% | 59.7% | 59.2% | 1463 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Allies | 9 | 16.7% | 55 | 63.6% | 60.2% | 59.1% | 57.1% | 1304 | — |
| 4 | Water Allies | 2 | 3.7% | 11 | 72.7% | 54.4% | 57.3% | 51.9% | 1347 | — |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 3 | 5.6% | 16 | 56.2% | 49.1% | 50.6% | 48.5% | 1279 | — |
| 6 | Water Umbra Diana | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 58.3% | 56.3% | 49.0% | 50.0% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Razorgale | 6 | 11.1% | 31 | 45.2% | 46.1% | 48.6% | 48.5% | 1336 | — |
| 8 | Slimes | 10 | 18.5% | 49 | 51.0% | 52.7% | 48.4% | 49.9% | 1322 | — |
| 9 | Fire Aggro | 4 | 7.4% | 22 | 54.5% | 55.2% | 47.9% | 48.6% | 1261 | — |
| 10 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 41.7% | 52.8% | 47.7% | 49.4% | 1387 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 1.9% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.6% | 46.7% | 48.1% | 1522 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 46.2% | 46.7% | 48.4% | 1278 | — |
| 13 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 41.2% | 46.0% | 47.0% | 1038 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 3.7% | 12 | 41.7% | 48.0% | 45.8% | 48.3% | 1215 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Diana | 1 | 1.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 30.6% | 43.9% | 40.7% | 1469 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Fire Tera Mage | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 39.0% | 43.8% | 43.9% | 1304 | — |
| 17 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.9% | 5 | 30.0% | 40.6% | 43.3% | 45.1% | 1420 | ↑ top |
| 18 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 41.7% | 44.0% | 42.6% | 42.2% | 1301 | — |
| 19 | Fire Neos | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 50.0% | 56.1% | 41.4% | 47.5% | 1161 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Fire Exia | 3 | 5.6% | 16 | 18.8% | 29.6% | 39.5% | 40.6% | 1099 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Wind Exia | 2 | 3.7% | 10 | 0.0% | 20.6% | 34.9% | 37.8% | 1056 | ↓ low |