← Weatherlight Grand Archive Store Championship - Mortal Ambition season!

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Weatherlight Grand Archive Store Championship - Mortal Ambition season!. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Astra Cleric 1 1.9% 9 88.9% 67.6% 62.6% 59.7% 1465 ↑ top
2 Water Penguin Mill 2 3.7% 13 69.2% 64.4% 59.7% 59.2% 1463 ↑ top
3 Wind Allies 9 16.7% 55 63.6% 60.2% 59.1% 57.1% 1304
4 Water Allies 2 3.7% 11 72.7% 54.4% 57.3% 51.9% 1347
5 Fire Luxem Assassin 3 5.6% 16 56.2% 49.1% 50.6% 48.5% 1279
6 Water Umbra Diana 1 1.9% 6 58.3% 56.3% 49.0% 50.0% 1212 ↓ low
7 Wind Razorgale 6 11.1% 31 45.2% 46.1% 48.6% 48.5% 1336
8 Slimes 10 18.5% 49 51.0% 52.7% 48.4% 49.9% 1322
9 Fire Aggro 4 7.4% 22 54.5% 55.2% 47.9% 48.6% 1261
10 Water Ravishing Mill 1 1.9% 6 41.7% 52.8% 47.7% 49.4% 1387 ↑ top
11 Water Crux Mage 1 1.9% 5 40.0% 46.6% 46.7% 48.1% 1522 ↑ top
12 Wind Luxem Assassin 1 1.9% 6 33.3% 46.2% 46.7% 48.4% 1278
13 Fire Crux Mage 1 1.9% 6 33.3% 41.2% 46.0% 47.0% 1038 ↓ low
14 Fire Slimes 2 3.7% 12 41.7% 48.0% 45.8% 48.3% 1215 ↓ low
15 Water Diana 1 1.9% 4 25.0% 30.6% 43.9% 40.7% 1469 ↑ top
16 Fire Tera Mage 1 1.9% 6 33.3% 39.0% 43.8% 43.9% 1304
17 Fire Astra Cleric 1 1.9% 5 30.0% 40.6% 43.3% 45.1% 1420 ↑ top
18 Wind Overlord 1 1.9% 6 41.7% 44.0% 42.6% 42.2% 1301
19 Fire Neos 1 1.9% 6 50.0% 56.1% 41.4% 47.5% 1161 ↓ low
20 Fire Exia 3 5.6% 16 18.8% 29.6% 39.5% 40.6% 1099 ↓ low
21 Wind Exia 2 3.7% 10 0.0% 20.6% 34.9% 37.8% 1056 ↓ low