Fire Crux MageTier 2

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

The 9 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

• Legilus 85 cards · placed #11
• KlutZ 83 cards · placed #27
• Maxho66 85 cards · placed #36
• flarians 85 cards · placed #37
• EwiseiQ 85 cards · placed #43
• Aidan047 87 cards · placed #46
• JCee 85 cards · placed #51
• Shiki 83 cards · placed #52
• JunMing 85 cards · placed #69

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Mnemonic Charm. Losers more often ran: Meltdown, Chilling Touch, Under Fire.

↑ Played more by winners

Mnemonic Charm

Winning decks ran 4.0 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

↓ Played more by losers

Meltdown

Losing decks ran 2.3 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.

Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

Chilling Touch

Losing decks ran 1.3 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.

Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

Under Fire

Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 0.7.

Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

Library Witch

Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 1.3.

Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

Dusklight Communion

Losing decks ran 1.3 copies on average, winning decks 0.7.

Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.