← AGORA HOBBY AMB Store Championship
Water Tera MageTier 2
at AGORA HOBBY AMB Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.3% | 12 | 3-8-1 | 29.2% | 34.4% | 37.2% | -5.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.3% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 58.9% | +5.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 35.7% | -9.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.0% | -9.6 |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 34.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.3% | -10.3 |
| Fire Jin | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Water Fractal | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Water Kongming | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Water Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 56 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 56 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ruinous Pillars of Qidao | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tera Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Indolent Leisure | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Rain | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mind Freeze | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lost in Thought | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ebbing Tide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Channel Manifold Desire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nature's Appeal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Shard of Empowerment | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coriolis Ward | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Leeching Bolt | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Refracting Missile | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Taiji of Crystal Strategems | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freeze Stiff | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kraal, Stonescale Tyrant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Yudi, Gossamer Jade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dong Zhou, False Liege | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Empowering Prayer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Knowledge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Entrancing Filigree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cone of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Tera | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planar Abyss | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |