← AGORA HOBBY AMB Store Championship

Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2

at AGORA HOBBY AMB Store Championship

decks
10 (13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
52 21-22-9
overall winrate
49.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.0% avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
49.4% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1292 · median 1309 · range 1068–1455 (10 pilots with an ELO rating)
1057 Q1 1178 Q3 1392 1633
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Slimes 17.3% 6 2-3-1 41.7% 45.0% 46.8% -1.7
Fire Crux Mage 12.0% 6 5-1-0 83.3% 70.0% 65.7% +8.4
Water Ravishing Mill 10.7% 9 2-7-0 22.2% 30.8% 37.3% -5.9
Water Tera Mage 9.3% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 41.1% -5.7
Wind Allies 8.0% 7 4-1-2 71.4% 63.6% 71.5% +10.8
Fire Exia 4.0% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 45.2% -3.6
Fire Luxem Assassin 4.0% 4 0-4-0 0.0% 25.0% 28.2% -14.0
Fire Arcane 2.7% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.5% +1.1
Fire Slimes 2.7% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 47.5% -4.1
Wind Astra Cleric 2.7% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 57.9% +7.5
Wind Cats 2.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.0% +17.5
Wind Razorgale 2.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.4% -9.0
Fire Jin 1.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.9% +12.7
Water Fractal 1.3% 0
Water Kongming 1.3% 0
Water Silvie 1.3% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.4% +0.7
Wind Silvie 1.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.3% +6.9
Wind Slimes 1.3% 0
Wind Umbra Ranger 1.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.7% +0.7
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Shadowstrike, Slice and Dice, Ensnaring Fumes. Losers more often ran: Penumbral Waltz, Gearstride Gloves, Turbo Charge.

Played more by winners
Shadowstrike
Winning decks ran 4.0 copies on average, losing decks 3.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Slice and Dice
Winning decks ran 3.8 copies on average, losing decks 3.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Ensnaring Fumes
Winning decks ran 1.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Nullifying Mirror
Winning decks ran 0.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Scatter Essence
Winning decks ran 1.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Played more by losers
Penumbral Waltz
Losing decks ran 2.8 copies on average, winning decks 1.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Gearstride Gloves
Losing decks ran 0.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Turbo Charge
Losing decks ran 0.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Verdigris Decree
Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Penumbral Waltz -1.00 0 4 0
Gearstride Gloves -0.75 0 3 0
Shadowstrike +0.75 3 0 1
Scout the Land +0.50 2 0 2
Veiling Breeze +0.50 2 0 2
Sable Remnant -0.50 0 2 0
Mercenary's Blade -0.50 0 2 0
Slice and Dice +0.50 3 1 0
Ensnaring Fumes +0.50 3 1 0
Nullifying Lantern +0.50 2 0 2
Blinding Orb -0.50 0 2 0
Tristan, Shadowreaver +0.50 2 0 2
Tariff Ring -0.50 0 2 1
Mastermind Scheme +0.50 2 0 2
Zephyr +0.50 2 0 2
Innervate Agility -0.50 0 2 1
Eternal Magistrate +0.50 2 0 1
Safeguard Amulet +0.50 2 0 1
Reclaim +0.25 1 0 3
Sharpen Blade -0.25 0 1 1
Viridian Protective Trinket -0.25 0 1 3
Stifling Trap +0.25 1 0 3
Heavenly Guide +0.25 1 0 0
Imperial Spy +0.25 1 0 0
Turbo Charge -0.25 1 2 1
Verdigris Decree -0.25 1 2 1
Blackmarket Broker -0.25 0 1 3
Diablerie +0.25 1 0 2
Beseech the Winds +0.25 1 0 2
Nullifying Mirror +0.25 2 1 0
Scatter Essence +0.25 2 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.25 1 0 0
Dusklight Communion -0.25 0 1 0
Gawain, Chivalrous Thief -0.25 0 1 0
Dream Fairy +0.00 1 1 2
Shadow Resonance +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/13058/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike