EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Regionals Mortal Ambition.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Allies | 3 | 4.6% | 13 | 73.1% | 60.1% | 60.6% | 57.2% | 1329 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 1.5% | 6 | 75.0% | 59.5% | 59.0% | 54.9% | 1402 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.5% | 6 | 75.0% | 67.4% | 58.5% | 59.6% | 1349 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Ravishing Mill | 5 | 7.7% | 24 | 68.8% | 58.8% | 56.9% | 55.0% | 1339 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 4.6% | 17 | 67.6% | 61.1% | 56.5% | 54.8% | 1317 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 4.6% | 20 | 65.0% | 61.4% | 54.4% | 52.7% | 1384 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 7 | 10.8% | 41 | 63.4% | 54.4% | 53.3% | 50.2% | 1334 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 1.5% | 6 | 33.3% | 46.0% | 52.0% | 54.0% | 1203 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Tera Kongming | 2 | 3.1% | 12 | 37.5% | 43.7% | 50.5% | 50.9% | 1211 | — |
| 10 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.5% | 6 | 66.7% | 54.6% | 50.2% | 49.0% | 1479 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Water Neos Tonoris | 1 | 1.5% | 6 | 41.7% | 45.2% | 50.1% | 50.2% | 1189 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Allies | 1 | 1.5% | 6 | 50.0% | 44.5% | 48.8% | 46.2% | 1385 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Slimes | 13 | 20.0% | 57 | 47.4% | 51.2% | 48.8% | 50.5% | 1244 | — |
| 14 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 1.5% | 6 | 33.3% | 43.3% | 47.1% | 48.1% | 1145 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Cats | 3 | 4.6% | 18 | 36.1% | 42.3% | 46.0% | 47.7% | 1073 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Neos | 1 | 1.5% | 6 | 33.3% | 48.6% | 45.4% | 49.7% | 1059 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 3.1% | 10 | 40.0% | 38.9% | 45.0% | 43.6% | 1279 | — |
| 18 | Wind Crux Mage | 2 | 3.1% | 10 | 45.0% | 44.5% | 44.8% | 45.0% | 1238 | — |
| 19 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 1.5% | 6 | 50.0% | 49.6% | 44.2% | 45.3% | 1136 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Fire Slimes | 3 | 4.6% | 18 | 52.8% | 55.2% | 43.7% | 46.0% | 1220 | — |
| 21 | Fire Exia | 4 | 6.2% | 24 | 39.6% | 40.5% | 43.1% | 44.1% | 1251 | — |
| 22 | Water Crux Merlin | 1 | 1.5% | 6 | 41.7% | 50.7% | 43.1% | 45.8% | 1006 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 1.5% | 6 | 33.3% | 52.4% | 43.1% | 47.7% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Fire Tera Tamer | 1 | 1.5% | 6 | 33.3% | 45.9% | 42.6% | 44.5% | 1152 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Wind Beast | 1 | 1.5% | 6 | 33.3% | 46.7% | 42.4% | 46.3% | 1001 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Wind Tera Tamer | 1 | 1.5% | 6 | 33.3% | 46.7% | 42.4% | 46.3% | 1001 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Water Tera Silvie | 1 | 1.5% | 8 | 12.5% | 24.0% | 41.9% | 41.9% | 1135 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Arcane | 1 | 1.5% | 6 | 25.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | 43.9% | 1107 | ↓ low |
| 29 | Fire Tera Mage | 1 | 1.5% | 6 | 25.0% | 35.9% | 39.2% | 40.1% | 1328 | ↑ top |