EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GA Online Regional Championship (AMB). EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Wind Slimes

57.8%

1.8% share · 9 matches

7.0% share · 23 matches

3.5% share · 9 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Allies	4	7.0%	23	69.6%	60.5%	62.0%	56.7%	1432	↑ top
2	Wind Slimes	1	1.8%	9	72.2%	54.8%	57.8%	52.7%	1311	↓ low
3	Fire Slimes	2	3.5%	9	55.6%	48.7%	56.2%	51.6%	1466	↑ top
4	Water Ravishing Mill	4	7.0%	25	64.0%	56.4%	55.1%	52.7%	1298	↓ low
5	Water Tera Kongming	1	1.8%	6	58.3%	52.9%	53.6%	52.1%	1349	—
6	Wind Allies	5	8.8%	26	57.7%	50.9%	52.7%	50.4%	1353	—
7	Fire Crux Mage	4	7.0%	25	52.0%	48.4%	52.7%	50.0%	1367	—
8	Water Penguin Mill	1	1.8%	5	50.0%	52.3%	52.4%	52.3%	1525	↑ top
9	Fire Exia	1	1.8%	6	58.3%	51.1%	52.0%	50.8%	1426	↑ top
10	Slimes	12	21.1%	59	48.3%	47.9%	49.9%	49.5%	1381	—
11	Fire Aggro	3	5.3%	18	50.0%	52.1%	49.9%	50.2%	1329	—
12	Wind Astra Cleric	2	3.5%	9	50.0%	52.0%	49.6%	51.3%	1332	—
13	Wind Shadowstrike	5	8.8%	23	43.5%	48.5%	46.3%	49.2%	1309	↓ low
14	Fire Umbra Tristan	1	1.8%	5	20.0%	42.9%	42.9%	47.2%	1510	↑ top
15	Wind Exia	1	1.8%	4	12.5%	45.9%	41.2%	48.3%	1194	↓ low
16	Wind Razorgale	8	14.0%	33	34.8%	44.1%	40.6%	45.8%	1382	—
17	Water Tera Mage	1	1.8%	2	0.0%	40.0%	40.0%	43.9%	1219	↓ low
18	Wind Luxem Assassin	1	1.8%	5	0.0%	40.7%	40.0%	46.5%	1278	↓ low