EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at LKH Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 11.1% | 16 | 81.2% | 64.7% | 62.8% | 57.8% | 1477 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 7.4% | 12 | 62.5% | 57.8% | 53.0% | 53.2% | 1302 | — |
| 3 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 60.0% | 57.7% | 52.7% | 53.8% | 1262 | — |
| 4 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 3.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 54.0% | 51.9% | 53.8% | 1227 | — |
| 5 | Water Ravishing Mill | 3 | 11.1% | 13 | 57.7% | 55.6% | 51.3% | 51.4% | 1354 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Slimes | 4 | 14.8% | 16 | 43.8% | 49.2% | 49.5% | 51.8% | 1275 | — |
| 7 | Water Penguin Mill | 2 | 7.4% | 11 | 54.5% | 49.0% | 48.9% | 47.4% | 1318 | — |
| 8 | Water Allies | 2 | 7.4% | 10 | 45.0% | 48.5% | 46.2% | 47.4% | 1179 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.7% | 4 | 37.5% | 49.3% | 45.0% | 47.6% | 1303 | — |
| 10 | Wind Allies | 4 | 14.8% | 17 | 44.1% | 42.4% | 44.7% | 44.1% | 1274 | — |
| 11 | Water Exia | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 30.0% | 45.8% | 43.8% | 46.7% | 1029 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 20.0% | 33.9% | 42.0% | 43.6% | 1173 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 3.7% | 4 | 12.5% | 35.5% | 41.2% | 43.2% | 1079 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Tera Mage | 1 | 3.7% | 4 | 12.5% | 37.3% | 41.2% | 44.0% | 1304 | — |