← Yeti Gaming Online Regional 12/1/2024 10 AM Start Time
Fire AggroTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Online Regional 12/1/2024 10 AM Start Time
decks
5
(4.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
27
9-17-1
overall winrate
35.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.9%
avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
43.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1201
· median 1219
· range 1000–1328
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1248
Q3 1424
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
60% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 54.9% | +3.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.3% | -5.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.3% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 41.5% | -5.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 45.1% | -4.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.9% | +7.6 |
| Fire Exia | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +3.6 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.9% | -1.6 |
| Water Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Triskit | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
