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Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Online Regional 12/1/2024 10 AM Start Time
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.8% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -2.5 |
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +1.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.4% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 41.7% | -4.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 44.7% | -3.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.3% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 60.4% | +6.0 |
| Water Allies | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.9% | +2.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.1% | -3.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.7% | +7.4 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.4 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.9 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Triskit | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Serum of Wisdom | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dusksoul Stone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thousand Refractions | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |