← Yeti Gaming Online Regional 12/1/2024 10 AM Start Time

Water Ravishing MillTier 1

at Yeti Gaming Online Regional 12/1/2024 10 AM Start Time

decks
14 (11.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
74 36-28-10
overall winrate
55.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.5% avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
50.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.1% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1306 · median 1290 · range 1067–1750 (14 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000 Q1 1248 Q3 1424 1750
7% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 43% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Slimes 13.8% 11 2-8-1 22.7% 30.0% 42.4% -3.3
Wind Allies 13.0% 13 5-7-1 42.3% 44.1% 51.8% +0.8
Wind Razorgale 8.1% 6 3-2-1 58.3% 55.0% 53.9% +2.1
Wind Shadowstrike 7.3% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 56.7% +5.0
Fire Luxem Assassin 5.7% 6 4-1-1 75.0% 65.0% 58.3% +4.4
Water Allies 5.7% 7 6-0-1 92.9% 77.3% 64.8% +7.4
Fire Crux Mage 4.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.1% -9.4
Fire Aggro 4.1% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 45.1% -3.2
Fire Exia 4.1% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 59.2% +6.9
Fire Slimes 4.1% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 51.9% +1.9
Water Crux Mage 2.4% 6 2-3-1 41.7% 45.0% 51.8% +1.0
Water Penguin Mill 2.4% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 57.0% +6.7
Wind Astra Cleric 2.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.4% +7.0
Wind Crux Mage 1.6% 0
Fire Arcane 0.8% 0
Fire Tera Kongming 0.8% 0
Fire Tera Tamer 0.8% 0
Water Exia 0.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.4% -7.4
Water Luxem Assassin 0.8% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 52.7% +2.6
Water Silvie 0.8% 0
Water Tera Kongming 0.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.6% -8.6
Water Umbra Ranger 0.8% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 56.0% +5.7
Wind Cats 0.8% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 0.8% 0
Wind Silvie 0.8% 0
Wind Slimes 0.8% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 62.9% +9.6
Wind Triskit 0.8% 0
Wind Umbra Tristan 0.8% 0
Decklists · 14 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Revitalizing Cleanse, Blinding Orb, Tidal Lock. Losers more often ran: Diffusive Block, Tonoris, Lone Mercenary.

Played more by winners
Revitalizing Cleanse
Winning decks ran 2.4 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Blinding Orb
Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.
Tidal Lock
Winning decks ran 2.6 copies on average, losing decks 1.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Fractal of Polar Depths
Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.
Snow Fairy
Winning decks ran 1.8 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Rippleback Terrapin
Winning decks ran 3.2 copies on average, losing decks 2.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Played more by losers
Diffusive Block
Losing decks ran 1.6 copies on average, winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 2.
Tonoris, Lone Mercenary
Losing decks ran 0.4 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 2.
Show all 62 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Revitalizing Cleanse +1.00 5 0 0
Blinding Orb +0.60 3 0 2
Tidal Lock +0.60 4 1 0
Fractal of Polar Depths +0.60 3 0 0
Tithe Proclamation +0.40 2 0 0
Water Resonance Bauble -0.40 0 2 0
Fire Resonance Bauble -0.40 0 2 0
Spirit of Serene Water -0.40 0 2 2
Snow Fairy +0.40 3 1 0
Rippleback Terrapin +0.40 3 1 1
Grand Crusader's Ring -0.40 0 2 2
Vaporjet Shield +0.40 2 0 3
Spirit of Water +0.40 2 0 2
Wind Resonance Bauble -0.40 0 2 0
Bulwark Sword -0.40 0 2 1
Cell Sharpshooter -0.40 0 2 0
Quicksilver Grail +0.40 2 0 1
Silvie, Wilds Whisperer +0.40 3 1 1
Freezing Steel -0.40 0 2 1
Nullifying Mirror -0.40 0 2 1
Orb of Sealing -0.40 0 2 0
Glacial Evocation +0.40 2 0 0
Lunete, Frostbinder Priest -0.40 0 2 0
Primordial Ritual +0.20 3 2 0
Diffusive Block -0.20 1 2 0
Fractal of Rain +0.20 1 0 4
Mystic Purifier +0.20 1 0 0
Strategem of Myriad Ice +0.20 3 2 0
Tonoris, Lone Mercenary -0.20 1 2 0
Cerulean Decree +0.20 3 2 0
Icebound Slam +0.20 1 0 4
Seaside Ringleader +0.20 3 2 0
Glacial Guidance +0.20 1 0 0
Tidestone Bovine +0.20 1 0 4
Chilling Touch +0.20 1 0 4
Refracting Missile +0.20 1 0 4
Unbroken Mustang +0.20 1 0 0
Fractal of Intrusion +0.20 1 0 0
Hailstorm Guard +0.20 1 0 0
Seasprite Diver +0.20 1 0 0
Give Bath -0.20 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet +0.20 2 1 0
Staggering Strike -0.20 0 1 0
Lurking Assailant -0.20 0 1 0
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa -0.20 0 1 0
Nia, Mistveiled Scout -0.20 0 1 0
Tristan, Underhanded -0.20 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern -0.20 0 1 0
Freezing Hail -0.20 0 1 0
Exploit Vulnerability -0.20 0 1 0
Halocline Scout -0.20 0 1 0
Sadi, Blood Harvester -0.20 0 1 0
Poisoned Dagger -0.20 0 1 0
Corhazi Trapper -0.20 0 1 0
Jueying, Shadowmare -0.20 0 1 0
Song of Frost +0.00 2 2 1
Frostbind +0.00 2 2 1
Storm of Thorns +0.00 1 1 3
Ravishing Finale +0.00 2 2 1
Tideholder Claymore +0.00 1 1 3
Incapacitate +0.00 1 1 0
Tariff Ring +0.00 2 2 1

JSON: /api/events/14831/archetypes/Water Ravishing Mill