← Yeti Gaming Online Regional 12/1/2024 10 AM Start Time
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Online Regional 12/1/2024 10 AM Start Time
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.8% | 11 | 2-8-1 | 22.7% | 30.0% | 42.4% | -3.3 |
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 13 | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 44.1% | 51.8% | +0.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.1% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 53.9% | +2.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 56.7% | +5.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.7% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 58.3% | +4.4 |
| Water Allies | 5.7% | 7 | 6-0-1 | 92.9% | 77.3% | 64.8% | +7.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 45.1% | -3.2 |
| Fire Exia | 4.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 59.2% | +6.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 51.8% | +1.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.0% | +6.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
| Water Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.0% | +5.7 |
| Wind Cats | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 62.9% | +9.6 |
| Wind Triskit | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 14 from this event
The 14 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Revitalizing Cleanse, Blinding Orb, Tidal Lock. Losers more often ran: Diffusive Block, Tonoris, Lone Mercenary.
Show all 62 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.60 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Icebound Slam | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Glacial Guidance | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Give Bath | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 |