Fire ExiaTier 2
at Grand Archive Regionals
decks
2
(6.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
3-7-2
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.6%
avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
44.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1162
· median 1162
· range 1076–1248
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1223
Q3 1446
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 12.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.7% | -11.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.9% | +6.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -5.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Water Arisanna | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
| Water Lorraine | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
