Water Tera MageTier 2
at Grand Archive Regionals
decks
1
(3.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.5%
avg ELO -1.3 per match
expected value
46.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1264
· median 1264
· range 1264–1264
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1223
Q3 1446
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 12.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Exia | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
