Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Grand Archive Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 12.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.1% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 57.9% | +5.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -2.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.2% | +3.1 |
| Fire Exia | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Water Arisanna | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.0% | +8.6 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 8 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 8 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |