Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Grand Archive Regionals
decks
4
(12.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
12-10-2
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.2%
avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
49.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1352
· median 1361
· range 1223–1464
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1223
Q3 1446
1702
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 12.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.3% | -3.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.0% | -17.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 42.1% | -5.9 |
| Fire Exia | 6.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.3% | +11.8 |
| Wind Allies | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.8% | +6.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Water Arisanna | 3.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -3.4 |
| Water Lorraine | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.6% | +6.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.1% | -17.2 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
