← HP Wolves Den Store Championship! (AMB Season)

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at HP Wolves Den Store Championship! (AMB Season). EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Ravishing Mill 1 3.6% 5 60.0% 48.6% 55.0% 52.2% 1419
2 Water Umbra Diana 1 3.6% 5 70.0% 63.6% 54.4% 55.1% 1446
3 Slimes 7 25.0% 28 57.1% 53.7% 54.3% 52.8% 1394
4 Water Penguin Mill 1 3.6% 5 60.0% 43.2% 53.8% 49.1% 1642 ↑ top
5 Water Allies 3 10.7% 15 53.3% 51.6% 52.4% 52.3% 1331 ↓ low
6 Fire Aggro 1 3.6% 5 60.0% 56.4% 52.1% 52.9% 1496 ↑ top
7 Fire Slimes 2 7.1% 10 70.0% 62.1% 51.6% 51.3% 1596 ↑ top
8 Wind Shadowstrike 2 7.1% 10 45.0% 46.7% 51.5% 51.4% 1360
9 Wind Allies 2 7.1% 10 55.0% 57.7% 50.7% 52.7% 1429
10 Water Crux Mage 1 3.6% 5 30.0% 46.4% 44.7% 47.9% 1427
11 Fire Exia 1 3.6% 5 20.0% 31.0% 41.3% 42.0% 1365
12 Fire Crux Mage 3 10.7% 8 37.5% 43.0% 40.0% 42.1% 1360
13 Fire Arcane 1 3.6% 3 0.0% 39.8% 40.0% 45.7% 1186 ↓ low
14 Fire Crux Hybrid 2 7.1% 4 0.0% 33.7% 35.3% 38.4% 1198 ↓ low