← FTG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at FTG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Allies | 1 | 2.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 46.1% | 56.0% | 50.2% | 1453 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Silvie | 1 | 2.3% | 6 | 75.0% | 63.2% | 54.2% | 53.3% | 1536 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 7.0% | 15 | 60.0% | 57.7% | 53.8% | 53.1% | 1292 | — |
| 4 | Slimes | 3 | 7.0% | 16 | 56.2% | 57.3% | 52.7% | 53.7% | 1228 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Penguin Mill | 6 | 14.0% | 32 | 59.4% | 54.3% | 51.6% | 50.2% | 1356 | — |
| 6 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 2.3% | 6 | 50.0% | 50.2% | 51.6% | 51.2% | 1282 | — |
| 7 | Water Crux Mage | 2 | 4.7% | 12 | 50.0% | 35.1% | 50.6% | 44.9% | 1445 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Aggro | 4 | 9.3% | 22 | 52.3% | 51.7% | 50.5% | 50.8% | 1293 | — |
| 9 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 2.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 64.2% | 49.3% | 53.1% | 1522 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Slimes | 1 | 2.3% | 6 | 75.0% | 53.5% | 49.2% | 46.1% | 1311 | — |
| 11 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 48.7% | 47.3% | 1349 | — |
| 12 | Wind Diana | 1 | 2.3% | 6 | 50.0% | 47.9% | 48.6% | 48.6% | 1445 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Water Ravishing Mill | 6 | 14.0% | 25 | 46.0% | 50.6% | 48.4% | 50.0% | 1286 | — |
| 14 | Fire Tera Mage | 1 | 2.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 44.5% | 47.7% | 48.0% | 1149 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Razorgale | 3 | 7.0% | 13 | 53.8% | 56.3% | 47.5% | 49.0% | 1289 | — |
| 16 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 2.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 37.0% | 46.2% | 45.6% | 1329 | — |
| 17 | Fire Exia | 2 | 4.7% | 11 | 27.3% | 41.6% | 44.8% | 47.4% | 1131 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 2.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.6% | 44.7% | 46.6% | 1355 | — |
| 19 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 2.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 52.5% | 44.3% | 47.8% | 1389 | ↑ top |
| 20 | Wind Jin | 1 | 2.3% | 6 | 16.7% | 40.2% | 44.0% | 48.7% | 989 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Water Tonoris | 1 | 2.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 45.7% | 42.2% | 46.3% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Water Arcane Rai | 1 | 2.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 31.1% | 40.0% | 38.7% | 1201 | ↓ low |