← FTG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at FTG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Allies 1 2.3% 6 66.7% 46.1% 56.0% 50.2% 1453 ↑ top
2 Water Silvie 1 2.3% 6 75.0% 63.2% 54.2% 53.3% 1536 ↑ top
3 Wind Shadowstrike 3 7.0% 15 60.0% 57.7% 53.8% 53.1% 1292
4 Slimes 3 7.0% 16 56.2% 57.3% 52.7% 53.7% 1228 ↓ low
5 Water Penguin Mill 6 14.0% 32 59.4% 54.3% 51.6% 50.2% 1356
6 Water Astra Cleric 1 2.3% 6 50.0% 50.2% 51.6% 51.2% 1282
7 Water Crux Mage 2 4.7% 12 50.0% 35.1% 50.6% 44.9% 1445 ↑ top
8 Fire Aggro 4 9.3% 22 52.3% 51.7% 50.5% 50.8% 1293
9 Wind Astra Cleric 1 2.3% 6 66.7% 64.2% 49.3% 53.1% 1522 ↑ top
10 Water Slimes 1 2.3% 6 75.0% 53.5% 49.2% 46.1% 1311
11 Water Luxem Assassin 1 2.3% 4 37.5% 41.7% 48.7% 47.3% 1349
12 Wind Diana 1 2.3% 6 50.0% 47.9% 48.6% 48.6% 1445 ↑ top
13 Water Ravishing Mill 6 14.0% 25 46.0% 50.6% 48.4% 50.0% 1286
14 Fire Tera Mage 1 2.3% 4 37.5% 44.5% 47.7% 48.0% 1149 ↓ low
15 Wind Razorgale 3 7.0% 13 53.8% 56.3% 47.5% 49.0% 1289
16 Fire Crux Mage 1 2.3% 4 25.0% 37.0% 46.2% 45.6% 1329
17 Fire Exia 2 4.7% 11 27.3% 41.6% 44.8% 47.4% 1131 ↓ low
18 Water Tera Mage 1 2.3% 4 25.0% 42.6% 44.7% 46.6% 1355
19 Fire Slimes 1 2.3% 5 40.0% 52.5% 44.3% 47.8% 1389 ↑ top
20 Wind Jin 1 2.3% 6 16.7% 40.2% 44.0% 48.7% 989 ↓ low
21 Water Tonoris 1 2.3% 5 20.0% 45.7% 42.2% 46.3% 1153 ↓ low
22 Water Arcane Rai 1 2.3% 2 0.0% 31.1% 40.0% 38.7% 1201 ↓ low