EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at FORTRESS AMB REGIONALS.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Penguin Mill | 7 | 7.0% | 42 | 69.0% | 60.2% | 61.3% | 56.5% | 1361 | — |
| 2 | Wind Astra Cleric | 13 | 13.0% | 69 | 61.6% | 51.0% | 57.5% | 50.4% | 1452 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Ravishing Mill | 8 | 8.0% | 41 | 63.4% | 57.4% | 56.4% | 53.8% | 1404 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Polkhawk | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 50.0% | 58.6% | 50.8% | 52.1% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 57.1% | 53.6% | 50.5% | 51.2% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 1.0% | 5 | 50.0% | 51.9% | 50.0% | 51.1% | 1446 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 35.7% | 34.9% | 49.5% | 47.0% | 1341 | — |
| 8 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 57.1% | 59.2% | 49.4% | 52.2% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Shadowstrike | 5 | 5.0% | 21 | 38.1% | 41.3% | 49.0% | 48.7% | 1333 | — |
| 10 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 42.9% | 40.7% | 48.6% | 46.2% | 1348 | — |
| 11 | Slimes | 13 | 13.0% | 57 | 53.5% | 56.0% | 48.6% | 51.7% | 1264 | — |
| 12 | Fire Exia | 2 | 2.0% | 9 | 27.8% | 38.7% | 47.2% | 48.7% | 1221 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Slimes | 3 | 3.0% | 13 | 42.3% | 48.4% | 46.7% | 49.0% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Wind Allies | 10 | 10.0% | 48 | 44.8% | 50.8% | 46.6% | 49.6% | 1261 | — |
| 15 | Water Allies | 4 | 4.0% | 23 | 45.7% | 46.2% | 46.4% | 46.8% | 1242 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 1.0% | 3 | 33.3% | 48.1% | 45.7% | 47.9% | 1427 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 1.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 41.7% | 45.7% | 48.0% | 1227 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Aggro | 12 | 12.0% | 49 | 48.0% | 52.2% | 45.7% | 49.1% | 1279 | — |
| 19 | Water Slimes | 1 | 1.0% | 6 | 33.3% | 38.8% | 44.7% | 44.1% | 1449 | ↑ top |
| 20 | Wind Razorgale | 3 | 3.0% | 8 | 31.2% | 38.9% | 43.9% | 45.1% | 1097 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Fire Crux Mage | 8 | 8.0% | 38 | 43.4% | 45.8% | 43.6% | 45.3% | 1283 | — |
| 22 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 28.6% | 46.0% | 42.2% | 45.8% | 1110 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 1.0% | 3 | 33.3% | 44.3% | 40.0% | 42.7% | 1314 | — |
| 24 | Wind Crux Merlin | 1 | 1.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 36.6% | 40.0% | 44.3% | 1086 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Wind Tera Silvie | 1 | 1.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 37.4% | 40.0% | 44.2% | 1176 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Wind Neos | 1 | 1.0% | 4 | 0.0% | 35.4% | 37.9% | 43.2% | 1102 | ↓ low |