EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Card Merchant Westcity Regionals. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Luxem Assassin

54.4%

7.5% share · 19 matches

1st

Wind Seiryuu

57.3%

5.0% share · 13 matches

3rd

Fire Slimes

54.0%

2.5% share · 6 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Seiryuu	2	5.0%	13	76.9%	66.1%	57.3%	57.1%	1340	—
2	Fire Luxem Assassin	3	7.5%	19	60.5%	53.8%	54.4%	52.9%	1342	—
3	Fire Slimes	1	2.5%	6	66.7%	53.2%	54.0%	50.9%	1339	—
4	Water Fractal	9	22.5%	41	57.3%	55.1%	53.1%	52.5%	1399	↑ top
5	Wind Shadowstrike	5	12.5%	22	54.5%	52.9%	52.8%	52.2%	1319	—
6	Fire Suzaku	2	5.0%	14	53.6%	59.7%	51.7%	53.7%	1125	↓ low
7	Fire Exia	1	2.5%	6	41.7%	47.3%	51.4%	51.5%	1383	—
8	Wind Astra Cleric	2	5.0%	12	45.8%	48.8%	49.7%	49.8%	1318	—
9	Water Genbu	1	2.5%	7	57.1%	50.6%	47.6%	48.0%	1427	↑ top
10	Wind Allies	5	12.5%	33	40.9%	44.9%	47.2%	49.0%	1300	—
11	Water Crux Lorraine	4	10.0%	17	44.1%	39.9%	46.8%	44.3%	1431	↑ top
12	Water Allies	5	12.5%	23	39.1%	38.8%	45.3%	43.9%	1359	—
13	Water Tera Kongming	1	2.5%	6	25.0%	41.0%	45.2%	46.3%	1128	↓ low
14	Fire Aggro	3	7.5%	17	41.2%	51.6%	43.6%	48.9%	1285	—
15	Water Tera Cleric	1	2.5%	2	0.0%	36.7%	40.0%	44.1%	1346	—