Fire Crux MageTier 2
at HVN Regional - CM Dunedin
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
2-5-0
overall winrate
28.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.8%
avg ELO -3.6 per match
expected value
43.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1168
· median 1168
· range 1168–1168
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1022
Q1 1189
Q3 1399
1558
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Water Genbu | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Water Overlord | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Water Triskit | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
