Fire SuzakuTier 2
at HVN Regional - CM Dunedin
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Wind Allies | 11.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.1% | -6.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.9% | -8.7 |
| Water Fractal | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.4 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Triskit | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.7 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 41 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Revelations | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embertail Squirrel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Da Qiao, Cinderbinder | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Red Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Broken Promises | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fated Keepsake | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lavaplume Fatestone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Invective Instruction | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |