Fire ExiaTier 2
at HVN Regional - CM Dunedin
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-3-0
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.7%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
51.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1408
· median 1408
· range 1408–1408
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1022
Q1 1189
Q3 1399
1558
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Wind Allies | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Water Genbu | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Water Triskit | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
