Water AlliesTier 2
at HVN Regional - CM Dunedin
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-3-0
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.1%
avg ELO +3.1 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1151
· median 1151
· range 1151–1151
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1022
Q1 1189
Q3 1399
1558
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Wind Allies | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Water Overlord | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Triskit | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
