EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at HVN Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 4 | 14.3% | 22 | 72.7% | 63.0% | 57.3% | 54.9% | 1247 | — |
| 2 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 3.6% | 6 | 58.3% | 49.2% | 53.2% | 50.2% | 1254 | — |
| 3 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 7.1% | 10 | 55.0% | 66.6% | 51.9% | 55.7% | 1369 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 3 | 10.7% | 17 | 55.9% | 60.8% | 51.1% | 53.7% | 1262 | — |
| 5 | Water Genbu | 2 | 7.1% | 11 | 54.5% | 47.3% | 50.3% | 47.1% | 1482 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1 | 3.6% | 7 | 71.4% | 52.5% | 49.8% | 47.1% | 1568 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Seiryuu | 5 | 17.9% | 20 | 50.0% | 48.6% | 49.6% | 48.5% | 1238 | — |
| 8 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 7.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 42.0% | 49.1% | 50.7% | 1151 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 7.1% | 7 | 35.7% | 46.6% | 47.5% | 49.9% | 1279 | — |
| 10 | Slimes | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 28.7% | 46.4% | 40.2% | 1285 | — |
| 11 | Water Allies | 1 | 3.6% | 4 | 25.0% | 39.6% | 45.6% | 46.3% | 1179 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 7.1% | 10 | 30.0% | 46.3% | 39.2% | 43.9% | 1118 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 3.6% | 3 | 0.0% | 25.2% | 36.7% | 34.5% | 1161 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.6% | 3 | 0.0% | 30.7% | 36.2% | 37.7% | 1535 | ↑ top |