← Whimsy Regionals - Abyssal Heaven
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Whimsy Regionals - Abyssal Heaven.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Exia | 2 | 1.8% | 14 | 82.1% | 64.5% | 63.5% | 57.4% | 1463 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 1.8% | 14 | 85.7% | 73.1% | 62.7% | 59.8% | 1435 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 8 | 7.3% | 53 | 62.3% | 57.7% | 59.3% | 57.1% | 1385 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Genbu | 5 | 4.5% | 34 | 64.7% | 57.1% | 58.3% | 55.7% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Neos | 1 | 0.9% | 7 | 71.4% | 60.4% | 58.1% | 55.8% | 1355 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 0.9% | 7 | 42.9% | 48.3% | 55.1% | 54.2% | 1253 | — |
| 7 | Water Allies | 2 | 1.8% | 14 | 60.7% | 48.7% | 54.1% | 49.2% | 1326 | — |
| 8 | Water Astra Cleric | 2 | 1.8% | 10 | 50.0% | 47.7% | 53.2% | 51.1% | 1229 | — |
| 9 | Water Penguin Mill | 1 | 0.9% | 8 | 68.8% | 52.5% | 52.1% | 48.8% | 1429 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Crux Mage | 5 | 4.5% | 33 | 57.6% | 57.8% | 51.5% | 52.0% | 1240 | — |
| 11 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 2 | 1.8% | 10 | 50.0% | 58.7% | 51.4% | 54.3% | 1144 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Fractal | 13 | 11.8% | 80 | 53.8% | 51.0% | 51.2% | 49.6% | 1298 | — |
| 13 | Fire Suzaku | 5 | 4.5% | 34 | 47.1% | 49.0% | 51.1% | 51.0% | 1304 | — |
| 14 | Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 0.9% | 8 | 62.5% | 62.9% | 50.8% | 52.5% | 1352 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Water Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 0.9% | 7 | 50.0% | 43.9% | 50.7% | 48.7% | 1267 | — |
| 16 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 1.8% | 14 | 46.4% | 41.1% | 50.5% | 48.2% | 1402 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 0.9% | 5 | 50.0% | 54.4% | 50.0% | 51.6% | 1427 | ↑ top |
| 18 | Wind Luxem Zander | 2 | 1.8% | 14 | 60.7% | 50.3% | 50.0% | 47.0% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 19 | Slimes | 2 | 1.8% | 12 | 54.2% | 56.1% | 49.6% | 51.2% | 1206 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Fire Aggro | 10 | 9.1% | 58 | 50.0% | 49.7% | 49.0% | 49.0% | 1260 | — |
| 21 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 1.8% | 10 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 48.8% | 49.2% | 1310 | — |
| 22 | Wind Crux Mage | 2 | 1.8% | 13 | 53.8% | 51.4% | 48.6% | 48.6% | 1257 | — |
| 23 | Wind Polkhawk | 1 | 0.9% | 8 | 43.8% | 50.3% | 48.5% | 50.8% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Water Tonoris | 1 | 0.9% | 9 | 44.4% | 52.8% | 48.5% | 51.4% | 1132 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Fire Seiryuu | 2 | 1.8% | 10 | 45.0% | 51.4% | 48.3% | 50.7% | 1156 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Wind Razorgale | 2 | 1.8% | 14 | 60.7% | 59.3% | 46.8% | 48.4% | 1287 | — |
| 27 | Wind Byakko | 2 | 1.8% | 12 | 37.5% | 40.6% | 46.4% | 45.7% | 1316 | — |
| 28 | Fire Exia | 2 | 1.8% | 9 | 27.8% | 40.5% | 46.0% | 49.0% | 1200 | ↓ low |
| 29 | Wind Beast | 1 | 0.9% | 5 | 10.0% | 32.0% | 45.9% | 47.3% | 1069 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Wind Allies | 16 | 14.5% | 87 | 43.1% | 47.8% | 45.8% | 48.2% | 1197 | ↓ low |
| 31 | Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 4 | 3.6% | 23 | 39.1% | 43.5% | 42.7% | 44.1% | 1253 | — |
| 32 | Wind Neos | 1 | 0.9% | 6 | 16.7% | 29.7% | 41.8% | 41.6% | 1061 | ↓ low |
| 33 | Wind Lorraine | 2 | 1.8% | 11 | 27.3% | 38.1% | 40.8% | 43.1% | 1071 | ↓ low |
| 34 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 0.9% | 7 | 28.6% | 44.9% | 40.7% | 44.2% | 1125 | ↓ low |
| 35 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 0.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 36.5% | 40.7% | 41.0% | 1210 | — |
| 36 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 1.8% | 6 | 0.0% | 31.8% | 40.0% | 44.9% | 1033 | ↓ low |
| 37 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 0.9% | 2 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.0% | 40.6% | 1668 | ↑ top |
| 38 | Fire Polkhawk | 1 | 0.9% | 5 | 0.0% | 25.7% | 40.0% | 41.4% | 1112 | ↓ low |
| 39 | Wind Ravishing Mill | 1 | 0.9% | 3 | 0.0% | 31.8% | 40.0% | 40.6% | 1127 | ↓ low |
| 40 | Fire Tonoris | 3 | 2.7% | 14 | 17.9% | 33.4% | 36.1% | 40.7% | 1110 | ↓ low |