Fire AggroTier 1
at Illusive Webcam Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 22.6% | 7 | 2-3-2 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 47.6% | -1.2 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.8% | -2.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.3% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 56.0% | +3.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 57.0% | +5.2 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.2% | +7.0 |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +4.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.2% | +6.9 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +1.4 |
| Water Slice & Dice | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 52 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 52 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted Explosive | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mark the Target | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Penetrator Round | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Polkhawk, Boisterous Riot | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamebolt Arbalist | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Powered Sentinel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tinderflare Pivot | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bombard Flarecannon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Airship Cannoneer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blitz Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kingdom Informant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |