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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1

at Illusive Webcam Regionals

decks
6 (11.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
30 12-10-8
overall winrate
53.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.8% avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
51.9% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1424 · median 1380 · range 1257–1702 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1084 Q1 1295 Q3 1459 1750
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 22.6% 9 4-3-2 55.6% 53.8% 52.1% +1.0
Fire Aggro 13.2% 7 2-4-1 35.7% 40.9% 44.0% -3.0
Wind Allies 11.3% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 55.5% +4.1
Fire Suzaku 5.7% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 45.1% -4.7
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 3.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.3% -7.5
Fire Luxem Assassin 3.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.3% -7.5
Water Allies 3.8% 0
Wind Seiryuu 3.8% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 48.5% -2.5
Fire Byakko 1.9% 0
Fire Crux Mage 1.9% 0
Fire Slimes 1.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.0% +1.7
Slimes 1.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.4% +3.9
Water Crux Lorraine 1.9% 0
Water Crux Mage 1.9% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.5% +0.7
Water Genbu 1.9% 0
Water Slice & Dice 1.9% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 1.9% 0
Wind Byakko 1.9% 0
Wind Luxem Zander 1.9% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.1% +1.7
Wind Ravishing Mill 1.9% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 53.0% +2.9
Wind Slice & Dice 1.9% 0
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 1 0
Reclaim -1.00 0 1 0
Diablerie -1.00 0 1 0
Staggering Strike -1.00 0 1 0
Scout the Land +1.00 1 0 0
Stifling Trap -1.00 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Slimeshield -1.00 0 1 0
Beseech the Winds +1.00 1 0 0
Backup Charger +1.00 1 0 0
Ensnaring Fumes -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern -1.00 0 1 0
Shadowstrike -1.00 0 1 0
Turbo Charge +1.00 1 0 0
Verdigris Decree -1.00 0 1 0
Blinding Orb -1.00 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
Swift Recruit +1.00 1 0 0
Quicksilver Grail +1.00 1 0 0
Betraying Blade +1.00 1 0 0
Tariff Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Mastermind Scheme -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror +1.00 1 0 0
Zephyr +1.00 1 0 0
Dream Fairy -1.00 0 1 0
Potion of Healing +1.00 1 0 0
Scatter Essence -1.00 0 1 0
Innervate Agility -1.00 0 1 0
Portentous Tanggu -1.00 0 1 0
Penumbral Waltz +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/22832/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike