Water Crux MageTier 3
at Illusive Webcam Regionals
decks
1
(1.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-2-1
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.0%
avg ELO -6.0 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1280
· median 1280
· range 1280–1280
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1084
Q1 1295
Q3 1459
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 22.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 13.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slice & Dice | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
