Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Illusive Webcam Regionals
decks
3
(5.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
7-9-2
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.7%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
45.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1347
· median 1315
· range 1283–1444
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1084
Q1 1295
Q3 1459
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 22.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 13.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 43.0% | -5.2 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.8% | -6.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slice & Dice | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
