← FTG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship
Fire AggroTier 2
at FTG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship
decks
4
(7.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
7-13-0
overall winrate
35.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.5%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
42.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1207
· median 1223
· range 1055–1329
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1183
Q3 1378
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 48.5% | -1.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 55.5% | +4.1 |
| Water Genbu | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.0 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Water Kongming | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -11.0 |
| Water Tonoris | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
