← FTG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship
Water GenbuTier 1
at FTG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.0% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 41.5% | -4.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 63.3% | +8.5 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.0% | +12.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.7% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.7% | -1.0 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.7% | +19.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Water Kongming | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 8 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 8 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |