← FTG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship
Fire ExiaTier 2
at FTG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship
decks
1
(1.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.1%
avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
50.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1449
· median 1449
· range 1449–1449
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1183
Q3 1378
1656
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Genbu | 7.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
