← FTG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship

Fire SuzakuTier 2

at FTG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship

decks
6 (11.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28 12-15-1
overall winrate
44.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.8% avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
49.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1268 · median 1281 · range 1065–1378 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)
957 Q1 1183 Q3 1378 1656
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 17.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.8% +12.5
Wind Allies 11.3% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 37.3% -9.5
Fire Aggro 7.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.8% +15.7
Water Genbu 7.5% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 36.7% -8.5
Wind Shadowstrike 5.7% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.2% +0.2
Water Dawn of Ashes 3.8% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 3.8% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 47.5% -3.9
Wind Seiryuu 3.8% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 56.8% +5.1
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 1.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.0% -6.3
Fire Crux Mage 1.9% 0
Fire Exia 1.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.9% +9.4
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.9% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 34.3% -15.0
Fire Kongming 1.9% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.9% 0
Fire Slimes 1.9% 0
Fire Tera Diao Chan 1.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.7% +14.0
Water Kongming 1.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.2% +5.1
Water Seiryuu 1.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.8% +20.5
Water Tera Mage 1.9% 0
Water Tonoris 1.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.3% +14.9
Wind Byakko 1.9% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 43.5% -6.2
Wind Diana 1.9% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 47.7% -1.7
Wind Luxem Assassin 1.9% 0
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 15 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Reduce to Ash +1.00 1 0 0
Veteran Blazebearer +1.00 1 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket -1.00 0 1 0
Coiled Fatestone +1.00 1 0 0
Flamewing Fowl -1.00 0 1 0
Surging Bolt +1.00 1 0 0
Arthur, Young Heir +1.00 1 0 0
Beastbond Boots -1.00 0 1 0
Demolition -1.00 0 1 0
Fated Keepsake +1.00 1 0 0
Flamewreath Call -1.00 0 1 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Shatter the Brittle +1.00 1 0 0
Fanatical Devotee -1.00 0 1 0
Crimson Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/22864/archetypes/Fire Suzaku