← FTG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship
Water Dawn of AshesTier 2
at FTG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship
decks
2
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-4-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.4%
avg ELO +3.2 per match
expected value
52.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1297
· median 1297
· range 1163–1432
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1183
Q3 1378
1656
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +2.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Water Genbu | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Fire Kongming | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Water Kongming | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Water Tonoris | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
