Fire AggroTier 1
at AGORA HOBBY REGIONAL
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 26.8% | 33 | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 58.1% | 62.0% | +4.3 |
| Water Genbu | 10.8% | 15 | 8-5-2 | 60.0% | 57.9% | 64.7% | +5.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 12 | 2-8-2 | 25.0% | 31.2% | 42.1% | -3.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.0% | 15 | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 31.6% | 36.8% | -5.3 |
| Wind Allies | 6.6% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +0.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.6% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -1.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.8% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 78.1% | +15.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 64.4% | +8.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 69.5% | +12.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +15.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.0% | +6.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.8% | +15.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.6 |
| Water Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Wind Diana | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 17 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |