← AGORA HOBBY REGIONAL

Wind Luxem ZanderTier 2

at AGORA HOBBY REGIONAL

decks
8 (3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
55 26-20-9
overall winrate
55.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.7% avg ELO -1.5 per match
expected value
52.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1385 · median 1372 · range 1284–1535 (8 pilots with an ELO rating)
915 Q1 1182 Q3 1368 1685
62% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 26.8% 14 6-5-3 53.6% 52.8% 53.4% +1.4
Water Genbu 10.8% 5 2-1-2 60.0% 55.6% 47.1% -1.7
Wind Astra Cleric 9.4% 6 2-3-1 41.7% 45.0% 39.2% -5.7
Fire Aggro 8.0% 6 1-5-0 16.7% 30.0% 21.9% -15.0
Wind Shadowstrike 7.0% 7 1-4-2 28.6% 36.4% 32.5% -8.8
Wind Allies 6.6% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 59.7% +7.2
Wind Seiryuu 6.6% 5 5-0-0 100.0% 77.8% 66.2% +9.3
Fire Crux Lorraine 2.8% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 2.8% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 52.0% +1.9
Fire Suzaku 1.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 34.8% -24.3
Fire Crux Mage 1.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.5% +7.1
Fire Exia 1.4% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.4% 0
Fire Arcane 0.9% 0
Fire Slimes 0.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.9% +15.9
Wind Crux Lorraine 0.9% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 54.2% +4.1
Wind Luxem Assassin 0.9% 0
Wind Razorgale 0.9% 0
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 0.5% 0
Fire Crux Merlin 0.5% 0
Fire Tera Diao Chan 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.9% +6.3
Fire Umbra Ranger 0.5% 0
Slimes 0.5% 0
Water Astra Cleric 0.5% 0
Water Diana 0.5% 0
Water Tera Mage 0.5% 0
Wind Diana 0.5% 0
Wind Lorraine 0.5% 0
Wind Overlord 0.5% 0
Wind Umbra Tristan 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.6% +7.4
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Cleansing Reunion +1.00 1 0 0
Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace -1.00 0 1 0
Ensnaring Fumes -1.00 0 1 0
Winbless Lookout +1.00 1 0 0
Turbo Charge -1.00 0 1 0
Verdigris Decree +1.00 1 0 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Sirocco Operative -1.00 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket -1.00 0 1 0
Scout the Land -1.00 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +1.00 1 0 0
Swift Recruit -1.00 0 1 0
Art of War +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/23213/archetypes/Wind Luxem Zander