Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at AGORA HOBBY REGIONAL
decks
6
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
35
14-19-2
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.6%
avg ELO -3.7 per match
expected value
51.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1259
· median 1282
· range 1068–1423
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
915
Q1 1182
Q3 1368
1685
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 26.8% | 11 | 8-3-0 | 72.7% | 66.7% | 61.4% | +5.0 |
| Water Genbu | 10.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 43.4% | -4.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.0% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 35.6% | -8.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 36.6% | -10.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.3% | -4.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.0% | -15.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 26.5% | -22.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
