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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1

at AGORA HOBBY REGIONAL

decks
15 (7.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
104 59-32-13
overall winrate
63.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.4% avg ELO +2.5 per match
expected value
56.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1362 · median 1368 · range 1213–1633 (15 pilots with an ELO rating)
915 Q1 1182 Q3 1368 1685
53% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 26.8% 29 13-11-5 53.4% 53.0% 48.8% -0.4
Water Genbu 10.8% 13 9-4-0 69.2% 64.7% 59.2% +3.8
Wind Astra Cleric 9.4% 11 4-5-2 45.5% 46.7% 43.3% -2.9
Fire Aggro 8.0% 15 11-4-0 73.3% 68.4% 63.2% +5.3
Wind Allies 6.6% 6 2-2-2 50.0% 50.0% 45.1% -2.6
Wind Seiryuu 6.6% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 53.9% +2.2
Wind Luxem Zander 3.8% 7 4-1-2 71.4% 63.6% 67.5% +8.8
Fire Crux Lorraine 2.8% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 63.4% +10.0
Fire Luxem Assassin 2.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.2% +5.1
Fire Suzaku 1.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.9% -16.1
Fire Crux Mage 1.4% 0
Fire Exia 1.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.8% -17.9
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.4% 4 4-0-0 100.0% 75.0% 68.8% +12.0
Fire Arcane 0.9% 0
Fire Slimes 0.9% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 66.0% +15.4
Wind Crux Lorraine 0.9% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.1% -1.4
Wind Luxem Assassin 0.9% 0
Wind Razorgale 0.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.7% +10.6
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 0.5% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 63.7% +13.2
Fire Crux Merlin 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.2% +11.5
Fire Tera Diao Chan 0.5% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 0.5% 0
Slimes 0.5% 0
Water Astra Cleric 0.5% 0
Water Diana 0.5% 0
Water Tera Mage 0.5% 0
Wind Diana 0.5% 0
Wind Lorraine 0.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.8% -13.2
Wind Overlord 0.5% 0
Wind Umbra Tristan 0.5% 0
Decklists · 15 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 6 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Morgan, Soul Guide, Reclaim, Staggering Strike. Losers more often ran: Viridian Protective Trinket, Stifling Trap, Mastermind Scheme.

Played more by winners
Morgan, Soul Guide
Winning decks ran 2.0 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.
Reclaim
Winning decks ran 4.0 copies on average, losing decks 3.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 3.
Staggering Strike
Winning decks ran 2.2 copies on average, losing decks 0.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Nullifying Mirror
Winning decks ran 0.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 2.
Zephyr
Winning decks ran 2.0 copies on average, losing decks 1.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 2.
Slimeshield
Winning decks ran 1.3 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 1.
Played more by losers
Viridian Protective Trinket
Losing decks ran 0.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.
Stifling Trap
Losing decks ran 3.5 copies on average, winning decks 3.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 3.
Mastermind Scheme
Losing decks ran 2.5 copies on average, winning decks 1.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Censer of Restful Peace
Losing decks ran 0.5 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 3.
Blackmarket Broker
Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 0.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 2.
Verdigris Decree
Losing decks ran 0.3 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 3.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Viridian Protective Trinket -0.67 0 4 1
Morgan, Soul Guide +0.67 4 0 1
Reclaim +0.50 3 0 3
Staggering Strike +0.50 4 1 0
Stifling Trap -0.50 0 3 3
Mastermind Scheme -0.50 1 4 1
Censer of Restful Peace -0.50 0 3 0
Slice and Dice +0.33 2 0 4
Nullifying Lantern +0.33 2 0 4
Cloaked Executioner +0.33 2 0 0
Nullifying Mirror +0.33 3 1 2
Zephyr +0.33 3 1 2
Dream Fairy -0.33 0 2 4
Blackmarket Broker -0.33 1 3 1
Arrow Trap -0.33 0 2 0
Slimeshield +0.17 3 2 1
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.17 2 1 0
Ensnaring Fumes +0.17 3 2 1
Turbo Charge +0.17 3 2 1
Verdigris Decree -0.17 1 2 0
Fairy Whispers -0.17 1 2 3
Tristan, Shadowreaver +0.17 3 2 1
Penumbral Waltz -0.17 1 2 3
Unbroken Mustang +0.17 1 0 0
Beseech the Winds -0.17 0 1 0
Innervate Agility +0.17 1 0 0
Mystic Purifier -0.17 0 1 0
Tariff Ring -0.17 0 1 0
Aesan Protector +0.00 2 2 2
Dungeon Guide +0.00 1 1 4
Winbless Lookout +0.00 1 1 4
Shadowstrike +0.00 1 1 4
Tabula of Salvage +0.00 1 1 0
Blinding Orb +0.00 1 1 4
Cleansing Reunion +0.00 2 2 0

JSON: /api/events/23213/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike