Fire Crux MageTier 3
at AGORA HOBBY REGIONAL
decks
3
(1.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
1-9-0
overall winrate
10.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
28.6%
avg ELO -9.6 per match
expected value
30.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
34.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1143
· median 1162
· range 1104–1165
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
915
Q1 1182
Q3 1368
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 26.8% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 30.1% | -12.7 |
| Water Genbu | 10.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.2% | -13.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.8% | -12.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
