EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Yeti Webcam Weekly 4/4/2024.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Erupting | 2 | 4.5% | 8 | 81.2% | 51.6% | 60.2% | 50.9% | 1394 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 2.3% | 5 | 100.0% | 52.3% | 60.0% | 50.9% | 1548 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 2.3% | 4 | 75.0% | 51.2% | 57.8% | 50.8% | 1237 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 4.5% | 8 | 62.5% | 50.0% | 54.7% | 50.1% | 1591 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Crux Mage | 6 | 13.6% | 16 | 68.8% | 51.8% | 53.0% | 50.5% | 1180 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Allies | 3 | 6.8% | 10 | 60.0% | 49.9% | 51.9% | 49.9% | 1448 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Allies | 5 | 11.4% | 17 | 61.8% | 50.7% | 51.8% | 50.1% | 1365 | — |
| 8 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 2.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.4% | 50.9% | 50.0% | 1301 | — |
| 9 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 5 | 11.4% | 19 | 50.0% | 50.1% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 1294 | — |
| 10 | Water Neos | 2 | 4.5% | 7 | 57.1% | 50.1% | 49.5% | 49.8% | 1397 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 4.5% | 7 | 50.0% | 50.1% | 47.7% | 49.8% | 1527 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Water Tonoris | 1 | 2.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.8% | 46.7% | 50.0% | 1281 | — |
| 13 | Wind Arisanna | 1 | 2.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 49.9% | 46.4% | 49.8% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Neos | 1 | 2.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.3% | 44.5% | 49.5% | 1208 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Neos Tonoris | 1 | 2.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.7% | 44.4% | 49.7% | 1170 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 2.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.3% | 44.4% | 49.7% | 1241 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Tera Silvie | 1 | 2.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 49.4% | 43.9% | 49.4% | 1219 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 2.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 50.0% | 42.9% | 49.5% | 1327 | — |
| 19 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 2 | 4.5% | 6 | 16.7% | 47.7% | 42.5% | 49.1% | 1313 | — |
| 20 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 2 | 4.5% | 8 | 18.8% | 48.3% | 41.6% | 49.4% | 1133 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Water Astra Arisanna | 1 | 2.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 48.7% | 40.0% | 49.2% | 1152 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.3% | 3 | 0.0% | 47.3% | 40.0% | 48.8% | 1536 | ↑ top |
| 23 | Wind Vanitas | 1 | 2.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 48.5% | 40.0% | 49.4% | 1000 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Norm Tonoris | 1 | 2.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 48.7% | 40.0% | 49.2% | 1052 | ↓ low |