← 0531 貓腳印彰化店 HVN 賽季地區賽 Abyssal Heaven Regional
Water FractalTier 1
at 0531 貓腳印彰化店 HVN 賽季地區賽 Abyssal Heaven Regional
decks
25
(18.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
136
63-63-10
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.9%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
48.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1265
· median 1257
· range 974–1568
(25 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1187
Q3 1407
1694
12% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
24% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 10.5% | 22 | 6-14-2 | 31.8% | 34.6% | 36.3% | -5.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 14 | 8-6-0 | 57.1% | 55.6% | 54.9% | +2.0 |
| Wind Allies | 9.0% | 14 | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 41.7% | 43.9% | -2.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 11 | 6-2-3 | 68.2% | 63.3% | 63.6% | +5.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 55.2% | +3.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 37.3% | -5.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 62.2% | +6.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.3% | -3.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.0% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 41.5% | -4.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 56.1% | +2.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.0% | -12.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 62.8% | +9.6 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +4.4 |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.5% | +9.2 |
| Water Neos | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.0% | +5.8 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Fire Overlord | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.4% | -17.9 |
| Water Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Water Zander | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Arisanna | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.5% | +8.6 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.5% | +9.1 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.5 |
| Wind Tonoris | 0.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.0% | +0.7 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
Decklists · 25 from this event
The 25 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 10 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Quicksilver Grail, Song of Frost, Staggering Strike. Losers more often ran: Wand of Frost, Grand Crusader's Ring, Unstable Fractal.
Quicksilver Grail
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Song of Frost
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Staggering Strike
Winning decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 2.
Jianyu, Fate's Premonition
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 2.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Wind Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Wand of Frost
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Unstable Fractal
Losing decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
winning decks 2.8.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Fast Cure
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.6.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Orb of Hubris
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Fractal of Intrusion
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 59 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.30 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Wand of Frost | -0.30 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 8 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.20 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.20 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -0.20 | 2 | 4 | 4 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.20 | 2 | 4 | 4 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -0.20 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.20 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Novice Healer | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.10 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Disenchant | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Art of War | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mana Resonance | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 8 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 8 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 8 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanguard's Reversal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Guidance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |