EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DeckaDice HVN QLD Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 3.1% | 8 | 87.5% | 63.1% | 59.4% | 55.3% | 1617 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Aggro | 4 | 12.5% | 19 | 65.8% | 67.4% | 56.2% | 57.8% | 1281 | — |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 62.0% | 55.1% | 55.6% | 1346 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 6.2% | 13 | 61.5% | 61.5% | 54.8% | 55.2% | 1154 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 55.5% | 54.3% | 55.6% | 1080 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 54.6% | 53.3% | 53.1% | 1270 | — |
| 7 | Water Fractal | 4 | 12.5% | 22 | 61.4% | 53.0% | 53.2% | 50.1% | 1349 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 42.5% | 52.3% | 49.0% | 1362 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Umbra Diana | 1 | 3.1% | 7 | 57.1% | 54.6% | 50.0% | 51.5% | 1142 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Genbu | 2 | 6.2% | 12 | 58.3% | 51.4% | 49.4% | 47.8% | 1380 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Seiryuu | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 45.2% | 49.1% | 44.8% | 1262 | — |
| 12 | Wind Allies | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.3% | 48.3% | 49.2% | 1152 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Exia | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 50.2% | 47.3% | 49.3% | 1100 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Suzaku | 4 | 12.5% | 21 | 50.0% | 46.1% | 46.9% | 46.8% | 1262 | — |
| 15 | Fire Neos | 1 | 3.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 46.9% | 46.7% | 45.6% | 1201 | — |
| 16 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 44.9% | 44.3% | 48.7% | 989 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Cats | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 44.9% | 44.3% | 48.7% | 989 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 44.9% | 44.3% | 48.7% | 989 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 3.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 36.8% | 40.0% | 42.1% | 1046 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Water Tera Mage | 3 | 9.4% | 12 | 4.2% | 15.8% | 39.6% | 40.5% | 1097 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Slimes | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 39.4% | 39.3% | 42.8% | 1100 | ↓ low |